Analysis of The Impact of Population Growth Rate and School Participation Rate on Open Unemployment in Indonesia

Authors

  • Diva Nur’khalista Development Economics, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
  • Ismawati Development Economics, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
  • Verlita Junia Rahma Development Economics, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
  • Reva Lailiya Putri Agustina Development Economics, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
  • Christina Hutasoit Development Economics, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura
  • Lila Nurdiani Rahma Development Economics, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.65886/ijde.v1i1.6

Keywords:

School Participation Rate, Economic Policy, Labour Market, Open Unemployment, Population Growth

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the impact of the population growth rate and school participation rate on the open unemployment rate in Indonesia during the 2021–2023 period. The background of this research lies in the high open unemployment rate, influenced by various demographic and educational factors. The novelty of this study is its simultaneous analysis of the relationship between school participation and population growth with the open unemployment rate. The research uses multiple linear regression methods to analyse secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Education and Culture. The findings indicate that the school participation rate has a significant adverse effect on the open unemployment rate, where an increase in school participation reduces unemployment by improving individuals' skills. Conversely, the population growth rate has a significant positive effect, reflecting pressure on the labour market due to the imbalance between population growth and job availability. In conclusion, education plays a critical role in reducing unemployment, while population growth management needs to be optimised to alleviate pressure on the labour market. Enhancing the quality and accessibility of education, along with market-oriented training programs, are key strategies to address unemployment in Indonesia.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Journal

Blanchard, O. J., & Katz, L. F. (1999). The economics of labour markets. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(2), 115-137. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.13.2.115

Acemoglu, D. (2002). Technical change, inequality, and the labour market. Journal of Economic Literature, 40(1), 7-72.

Bloom, D. E., & Freeman, R. B. (1986). The effects of rapid population growth on labor supply and

employment in developing countries. Population and Development Review, 12(3), 381-396.

Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2004). Population growth and economic development: Connections and challenges. Population Studies, 58(1), 23-41. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472042000175658

Psacharopoulos, G., & Patrinos, H. A. (2004). Returns to investment in education: A further update. Education Economics, 12(2), 111-134. https://doi.org/10.1080/0964529042000239140

Aziz, I., & Nabeshima, K. (2006). Education and structural transformation in Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 1(2), 286-311.

Thorbecke, E., & Wan, H. (2004). Economic growth, education, and structural transformation. World Development, 32(4), 561-577.

Sultan, R., Rahayu, R., & Purwiyanta, A. (2023). Pengaruh penawaran dan harga terhadap pengangguran di pasar bebas. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 45(2), 110-120.

Ise, M., Kawung, R., & Rorong, N. (2022). Peran permintaan agregat dalam menyebabkan pengangguran. Jurnal Ekonomi Makro, 38(1), 45-58.

Simanjuntak, F. (2001). Pengaruh kebijakan upah minimum terhadap pengangguran. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 10(3), 101-114.

Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Pengaruh upah minimum terhadap pengangguran. American Economic Review, 85(5), 1115-1131.

Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1998). Teori pertumbuhan endogen dan dampaknya terhadap pengangguran. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 329-374.

Dissertation

Claro, S. (2001). Essays on trade and macroeconomics. University of California, Los Angeles.

Books

Layard, P. R. G., Layard, R., Nickell, S. J.,& Jackman, R. (2005). Unemployment: Macroeconomic performance and the labour market. Oxford University Press.

Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic econometrics (4th ed.). McGraw-Hill.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (5th ed.). Cengage Learning.

Mishkin, F. S. (2007). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson Education.

Fields, G. S. (2011). Labor market analysis for developing countries. Oxford University Press.

Book Chapter

Heckman, J. J., & Carneiro, P. (2003). Human capital policy. In NBER Working Paper No. 9495. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9495

Internet

OECD. (2010). OECD Employment Outlook 2010. OECD Publishing.

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2021). Laporan tahunan: Pengangguran dan laju pertumbuhan penduduk.

Kementerian Pendidikan dan Kebudayaan. (2021). Data pendidikan Indonesia 2021.

Downloads

Published

2025-03-31

How to Cite

Diva Nur’khalista, Ismawati, Verlita Junia Rahma, Reva Lailiya Putri Agustina, Christina Hutasoit, & Lila Nurdiani Rahma. (2025). Analysis of The Impact of Population Growth Rate and School Participation Rate on Open Unemployment in Indonesia. Indonesian Journal Of Development And Economics, 1(1), 34–44. https://doi.org/10.65886/ijde.v1i1.6

Similar Articles

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.