INFLATION, GOLD PRICES, AND INTEREST RATES: A MULTIVARIATE ARCH ANALYSIS OF WORLD OIL PRICE VOLATILITY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65886/ijde.v2i03.60Keywords:
Volatility Price Oil, Inflation, Gold Price, Ethnic Group Flower, M-ARCHAbstract
Fluctuation price world oil is issue important in global economy because influence inflation, investment, activity production, and financial market stability. Research This aim analyze influence inflation, prices gold, and tribes flower to volatility price world oil uses approach Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (M-ARCH). The data used in the form of monthly data period January 1990 to December 2025 obtained from the World Bank, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), and Eco3M. Analysis done through statistics descriptive, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, ARCH-LM test, and M-ARCH model estimation. Research results show that inflation and interest rates flower influential significant to volatility price world oil, while price gold No influential significant. Besides that is, the ARCH(1) coefficient is significant show existence persistence volatility, which means volatility price oil moment This affected by shocks in the period previously Findings This confirm that stability macroeconomics own role important in guard stability of the global energy market as well as reduce uncertainty in the world oil market.
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