THE EFFECT OF LENDING INTEREST RATE POLICY ON THE RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE IN INDONESIA (2015-2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65886/ijde.v2i04.71Keywords:
: Rupiah exchange rate, credit interest rate, multiple linear regression, cointegration, error correction model (ECM)Abstract
This study aims to analyze the influence of credit interest rate policy on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia in the period 2015–2024. The main focus of this study is to identify how Bank Persero's three types of credit interest rates, namely for investment, working capital, and consumption, affect the rupiah exchange rate in the short and long term. The research method used is a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis and cointegration tests, as well as an error correction model (ECM). The regression results show that the interest rate on investment loans has a significant positive effect on the logarithm of the rupiah exchange rate, which indicates depreciation pressure. On the other hand, the interest rate on working capital and consumption loans has a significant negative effect on the exchange rate, indicating a tendency to appreciate the rupiah. The cointegration test proved the existence of a long-term relationship between variables, although the ECM results showed that in the short term, the effect of the three interest rates was not significant. This research provides important implications for monetary authorities in formulating appropriate interest rate
policies based on credit types to maintain exchange rate stability.
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